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Beneath the chaotic flurry of current events, are there any universal principles that can help us make sense of international politics? At the first GGI keynote lecture of 2018/19, Sir Tom Phillips identified 13 ‘rules of international life’, drawing on his personal experience as a former British diplomat and Commandant of the Royal College of Defence Studies. These rules, he argued, can help explain past diplomatic successes and failures as well as shine a light on current developments, from the rise of China to the upsurge of populism.

1. A fundamental dilemma of international politics, according to Phillips, is that all nations are blind to their own faults. This is appears to be especially true for the most powerful nations who have repeatedly struggled to reconcile their self-image – be it as ‘civilising’ imperial powers or staunch defenders of human rights – with realities on the ground.Ìý
2. The second rule follows directly from the above. Nations that are unable to see themselves through the eyes of others and leaders who lose touch with reality are more likely to make mistakes. Hubris gets them all in the end.
3. Failure, however, is not always a result of arrogance and miscalculation. As Phillips put it, timing is 90% of the game and 90% of timing is luck. Conflict resolution efforts, in particular, are often derailed by bad timing. This means that one of the most important skills of diplomats and political leaders is to be able to spot the ‘right moment’ for intervention.Ìý
4. Leaders are necessary... but dangerous. With global cooperation gridlocked across various issue areas, ambitious international leadership, while desperately needed, is in short supply. This leadership vacuum, combined with the overwhelming complexity of today’s most pressing global problems, might provide some explanation for the renewed attraction of a more authoritarian style of leadership.
5. Humans make sense of the world by telling stories. Therefore, Phillips suggested, to understand another country, group or individual, the key question is what gives them their identity or their ‘story’. While these stories usually contain an ambiguous mix of truth and fiction, in an ever more complex world, they can offer a powerful (and potentially dangerous) vision of a ‘better, simpler past’.Ìý
6. Understanding identity is crucial, according to Phillips, because it is the deepest cause of conflict. Identity has many facets, including religion, ethnicity or economic ideology, however, Phillips contended that many strong national identities are based on a sense of victimhood, i.e. the (perceived) experience of having been humiliated or treated unfairly in the past. This can have dangerous consequences, as illustrated most starkly by the rise of the Nazis in post-Versailles Germany.Ìý
7. The freer a society, the more vulnerable it is. Phillips phrased this carefully, asking: Are democracies at a fundamental disadvantage when it comes to formulating viable long-term foreign policy strategies, compared to more autocratic states? And, if so, how can they ensure a good balance of consistency and flexibility in their diplomatic efforts without compromising key democratic principles?Ìý
8. High-level summits have become an increasingly important part of international life and today’s leaders meet each other more often than their predecessors. As a consequence, Phillips argued that, more than ever before, international relations are about personal trust and ‘chemistry’, i.e. whether leaders like each other.Ìý
9. So, how do world leaders bond? Philipps observed that sport is the global language when leaders meet. Maybe, he mused, this is because sport can sublimate geopolitical conflict by offering an alternative venue for battle and expression of national identity.
10. States rarely dispute the need for a ‘rules-based’ international order but they have quite different interpretations of what the rules are and who breaks them. In Phillips’ words, international law is what the other guy breaks. Thus, while the West has repeatedly accused Russia of violating international law (thinkÌýGeorgia in 2008 or Crimea in 2014), Russia has returned those accusations, pointing to the 2003 Iraq invasion, the 2011 Libya intervention or the recent airstrikes in Syria.Ìý
11. Most conspiracy is incompetence misunderstood. The world needs and wants conspiracy theories, Phillips said, in fact they appear more rampant than ever. This might be the manifestation of a longing for easier narratives in a world that appears overwhelmingly chaotic and arbitrary.Ìý
12. Beware the new kid on the block. Historically, we often see violent conflict when a rising power challenges an established one. Therefore, Phillips suggested, the biggest question in international politics today may well be whether the US and China can adapt to each other peacefully. Ìý
13. Phillips closed his talk with the observation that there is no guarantee of a happy ending. Even more depressingly, conflict has an extremely long-lasting impact on society.ÌýWhile a state’s physical infrastructure might be rebuilt relatively quickly, damages to the social fabric of society will take years or even decades to repair.Ìý

Nevertheless, Phillips concluded that despair should never be a policy option. Good leaders with integrity, vigour and dedication can make a real difference. Identities are fluid and the stories that inform them can be reinvented and retold. On a more practical level, countries can make better foreign policy decisions if their diplomats are well-versed in the history and geography of their own and other countries.Ìý

However, when it comes to tackling big, complex and truly global problems such as climate change, time is not on our side. And, as Phillips pointed out repeatedly during his talk, complexity often leaves people overwhelmed and disengaged. Going forward, then, an important question will be how we can frame those urgent issues in a way that is not met with denial or incapacitating despair.Ìý